Australia is facing a critical shortage of General Practitioners (GPs), a problem set to worsen with an estimated shortfall of 8,600 GPs by 2048. But why can't the solution simply be to train more doctors?

The demand for GP services is growing rapidly, primarily due to Australia's aging population. According to the Australian Bureau of Statistics, between 2019 and 2023, the number of Australians aged 65 and over increased by 13.1%, far outpacing the overall population growth of 5.2%. Older patients, particularly those with multiple chronic conditions, require more frequent GP visits. For instance, patients aged 85 and older visited their GP an average of 17.3 times in 2023, compared to just 3.5 visits for those aged 10-14. As the population ages, the demand for GP services continues to outstrip population growth, making it harder to meet healthcare needs.

Interestingly, while the total number of GPs in Australia has increased by 5.1% from 2019 to 2024, the number of full-time equivalent (FTE) GPs has actually decreased by 1.3%. This is due to two key factors: first, male GPs are working fewer hours, and second, more female GPs—who traditionally work fewer hours than their male counterparts—are entering the field. Combined, these trends contribute to a decrease in overall GP availability, exacerbating the shortage.

Another challenge is the difficulty in attracting medical graduates to general practice. In 2021-22, GPs had a median income of just A$142,279, significantly less than specialists like psychiatrists or surgeons. Moreover, many GPs work under the bulk billing system, which is financially challenging due to limited Medicare rebates. Rising operational costs for GPs, including rent and staff wages, further strain the profession.

Training pathways also pose barriers. After completing their medical degree, new doctors are required to work in hospitals, where general practice isn't emphasised. Many doctors are exposed to hospital-based specialties, making general practice less appealing. Additionally, those switching from hospital roles to GP training face reduced pay and loss of benefits like paid parental leave.

Despite these challenges, efforts are underway to address the shortage. The number of doctors enrolling in GP training programs for 2025 has risen by nearly 20%, with over 1,500 junior doctors signing up. But more must be done, especially in improving pay and conditions for GPs, to ensure a sustainable future for general practice in Australia.

If these issues aren’t tackled, Australia risks moving towards a fragmented healthcare system, where patients receive piecemeal care rather than the comprehensive, long-term services that GPs provide.